Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2522 at 08:55, 9%.

Safest bet today WN 2522 AUS 08:55 → MCO 12:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 353 AUS 18:05 → MCO 21:50 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2522 Southwest	AUS 08:55	MCO 12:33	9%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 349 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:15	MCO 13:55	12%	3%	0.3%	76%
WN 4582 Southwest	AUS 12:15	MCO 15:53	25%	6%	0.4%	no record
DL 2529 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:50	MCO 19:57	31%	11%	0.5%	64%
F9 4524 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 10:42	MCO 14:45	31%	12%	1.3%	80%worse than usual
WN 2529 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 14:45	MCO 18:30	31%	10%	0.4%	45%
DL 648 Delta	AUS 15:20	MCO 19:04	31%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 263 Southwest	AUS 20:55	MCO 00:33	33%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 4720 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 15:30	MCO 19:25	35%	10%	0.4%	62%
WN 1740 Southwest	AUS 16:00	MCO 19:36	38%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 370 Southwest	AUS 17:36	MCO 21:12	40%	13%	0.4%	no record
WN 352 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:05	MCO 20:50	42%	14%	0.4%	31%
WN 353 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:05	MCO 21:50	42%	14%	0.4%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON