Today: WN 362 at 11:50 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26%.

Safest bet today WN 362 AUS 11:50 → MIA 15:40 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 1411 AUS 17:30 → MIA 21:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 362 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 11:50	MIA 15:40	16%	3%	0.1%	67%
AA 620 American Flight history →	AUS 12:05	MIA 16:00	21%	6%	0.2%	67%
AA 812 American Flight history →	AUS 12:55	MIA 16:51	24%	6%	0.2%	80%
WN 3581 Southwest	AUS 15:40	MIA 19:28	25%	6%	0.1%	no record
AA 1227 American	AUS 16:29	MIA 20:28	26%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 1411 American Flight history →	AUS 17:30	MIA 21:30	26%	8%	0.3%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON