Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:54 pm at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 37–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 527 Southwest	AUS 14:44	OKC 15:34	37%	5%	0.1%	no record
WN 371 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:15	OKC 17:35	39%	7%	0.1%	60%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AUS 13:56 → DFW 15:10AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:34 → OKC 19:39AA 3727 · flown by Envoy	5h 43m	94%	68%
Southwest Details →	AUS 18:45 → HOU 19:45WN 4255	2h 45m Houston	HOU 22:30 → OKC 00:03 +1WN 4896	5h 18m	100%	67%
United Details →	AUS 15:37 → ORD 18:39UA 1625	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 20:33 → OKC 22:44UA 1440	7h 07m	89%	64%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	6h 57m	94%	62%
American Details →	AUS 14:44 → DFW 16:03AA 1397	1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:40 → OKC 18:45AA 3729 · flown by Envoy	4h 01m	84%	60%
United Details →	AUS 16:12 → IAH 17:16UA 685	2h 56m Houston	IAH 20:12 → OKC 21:47UA 2304	5h 35m	94%	59%
United Details →	AUS 14:18 → IAH 15:24UA 334	2h 48m Houston	IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	96%	59%
United Details →	AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447	1h 09m Denver	DEN 17:31 → OKC 20:11UA 1184	5h 26m	80%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326	1h 00m Houston	IAH 20:10 → OKC 21:43UA 1084	3h 39m	62%	39%
United Details →	AUS 16:12 → IAH 17:16UA 685	56m Houston	IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m	58%	35%
American Details →	AUS 14:44 → DFW 16:03AA 1397	1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:10 → OKC 18:22AA 2812	3h 38m	71%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON