Today: WN 374 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet today WN 374 AUS 06:40 → PHX 07:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2412 AUS 18:45 → PHX 19:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 374 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 06:40	PHX 07:00	6%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 396 Southwest	AUS 06:00	PHX 06:30	8%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 397 Southwest	AUS 08:36	PHX 09:08	16%	3%	0.2%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	AUS 08:03	PHX 08:49	19%	8%	0.4%	no record
WN 4472 Southwest	AUS 10:35	PHX 11:07	20%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 455 American Flight history →	AUS 08:19	PHX 08:49	20%	8%	0.2%	90%
WN 399 Southwest	AUS 13:45	PHX 14:18	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1059 American	AUS 14:19	PHX 15:00	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 375 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 11:45	PHX 12:05	24%	4%	0.2%	80%
DL 3747 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 08:30	PHX 09:00	24%	9%	0.4%	80%
AA 3181 American Flight history →	AUS 14:35	PHX 15:01	25%	7%	0.9%	79%
WN 3484 Southwest	AUS 17:00	PHX 17:32	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 378 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 21:35	PHX 22:00	27%	10%	0.5%	50%
WN 2023 Southwest	AUS 18:30	PHX 19:00	27%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2042 American Flight history →	AUS 12:04	PHX 12:28	29%	12%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
WN 403 Southwest	AUS 20:30	PHX 21:02	30%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 4426 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 19:40	PHX 20:05	31%	9%	0.5%	46%
AA 2412 American	AUS 18:45	PHX 19:22	33%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON