Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 699 at 06:40, 10%.

Safest bet today WN 699 AUS 06:40 → SAN 07:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3464 AUS 16:36 → SAN 17:45 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 699 Southwest	AUS 06:40	SAN 07:41	10%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1435 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 10:05	SAN 10:55	24%	6%	0.2%	48%
WN 411 Southwest	AUS 11:30	SAN 12:46	30%	9%	0.2%	no record
AS 3249 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:59	SAN 21:13	30%	9%	0.8%	57%
WN 1770 Southwest	AUS 20:25	SAN 21:41	31%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 417 Southwest	AUS 18:00	SAN 19:02	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2593 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 20:30	SAN 21:20	36%	9%	0.6%	4%
OO 3300 SkyWest	AUS 20:01	SAN 21:10	36%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 3489 SkyWest	AUS 13:55	SAN 15:04	39%	11%	0.6%	no record
AS 3084 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:59	SAN 16:05	40%	11%	0.6%	65%
WN 389 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 12:00	SAN 12:50	42%	10%	0.2%	44%
WN 416 Southwest	AUS 13:40	SAN 14:42	44%	10%	0.2%	no record
OO 3464 SkyWest	AUS 16:36	SAN 17:45	50%	12%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON