Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:04 pm at Austin)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4782 at 16:30, 33%.

Nonstops today


WN 4782 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 16:30	TUL 18:00	33%	8%	0.1%	58%
WN 294 Southwest	AUS 17:45	TUL 19:19	36%	8%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	AUS 15:35 → MDW 18:05WN 360	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 21:30 → TUL 23:26WN 301	7h 51m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	AUS 16:55 → ATL 20:29DL 1397	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043	6h 24m	90%	69%
Southwest Details →	AUS 16:30 → BNA 18:40WN 259	3h 35m Nashville	BNA 22:15 → TUL 00:02 +1WN 746	7h 32m	95%	69%
United Details →	AUS 16:13 → IAH 17:17UA 685	2h 49m Houston	IAH 20:06 → TUL 21:57UA 1927	5h 44m	93%	66%
American Details →	AUS 15:44 → DFW 16:58AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:51 → TUL 22:08AA 2014	6h 24m	100%	62%
United Details →	AUS 15:37 → ORD 18:39UA 1625	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 20:24 → TUL 22:15UA 2351	6h 38m	86%	61%
American Details →	AUS 19:03 → DFW 20:15AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531	4h 44m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	AUS 19:05 → DAL 20:10WN 2134	1h 45m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → TUL 23:14WN 1477	4h 09m	86%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 18:29 → DEN 20:00UA 439	55m Denver	DEN 20:55 → TUL 23:47UA 4712 · flown by SkyWest	5h 18m	62%	40%
Southwest Details →	AUS 15:50 → LAS 16:40WN 4143	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 17:40 → TUL 22:20WN 2188	6h 30m	57%	39%
United Details →	AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326	56m Houston	IAH 20:06 → TUL 21:57UA 1927	3h 53m	46%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON