Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:29 pm at Asheville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G7 4178 at 17:43, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G7 4178 GoJet	AVL 17:43	EWR 19:38	35%	9%	1.0%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AVL 17:38 → ORD 19:00UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	7h 15m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	AVL 17:59 → ATL 19:08DL 3101	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 59m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	AVL 17:04 → ATL 18:10DL 2037	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	5h 25m	89%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AVL 17:59 → ATL 19:08DL 3101	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	4h 30m	71%	50%
American Details →	AVL 16:21 → DFW 17:29AA 569	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:23 → EWR 23:07AA 2145	6h 46m	42%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON