Today: AA 3406 at 19:04 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–31%.

Safest bet today AA 3406 AVL 19:04 → ORD 20:29 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest G7 4167 AVL 17:54 → ORD 18:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3406 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 19:04	ORD 20:29	21%	5%	0.5%	63%
MQ 3424 Envoy	AVL 16:47	ORD 17:49	21%	5%	0.4%	no record
UA 5289 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 17:38	ORD 19:00	30%	9%	0.7%	61%
G7 4167 GoJet	AVL 17:54	ORD 18:59	31%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON