Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2614 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2614 SFO 06:02 → ORD 12:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2317 SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2614 American Flight history →	SFO 06:02	ORD 12:29	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2091 United Flight history →	SFO 06:05	ORD 12:41	4%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 1779 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 05:50	MDW 12:00	5%	1%	0.6%	83%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	SJC 06:30	ORD 12:54	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 2744 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:10	MDW 11:15	6%	1%	0.5%	88%
UA 2343 United	SFO 05:01	ORD 11:14	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3180 Southwest	OAK 00:05	MDW 06:03	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1850 United Flight history →	SFO 00:50	ORD 07:16	9%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 2847 United	SFO 00:46	ORD 07:07	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1568 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	ORD 14:50	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 359 American Flight history →	SFO 08:00	ORD 14:27	10%	3%	0.7%	79%
UA 368 United Flight history →	SFO 23:30	ORD 05:57	11%	3%	0.5%	86%
WN 3059 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 23:55	MDW 06:00	13%	2%	0.6%	66%
WN 3886 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 22:55	MDW 05:00	13%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SFO 22:38	ORD 05:01	14%	4%	0.5%	81%
UA 1375 United Flight history →	SFO 18:34	ORD 00:59	15%	4%	0.5%	58%
AA 2554 American Flight history →	SFO 23:07	ORD 05:20	15%	3%	0.7%	73%
UA 1482 United Flight history →	SFO 16:21	ORD 22:59	15%	5%	0.5%	81%
AA 2537 American Flight history →	SFO 16:20	ORD 23:00	16%	6%	0.7%	69%
WN 4357 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:05	MDW 16:10	16%	2%	0.6%	65%
AA 2543 American Flight history →	SFO 10:17	ORD 16:46	17%	5%	0.7%	71%
UA 1954 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	ORD 16:38	18%	4%	0.5%	72%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 15:10	ORD 21:38	19%	5%	0.5%	53%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	SFO 14:29	ORD 21:03	22%	6%	0.5%	46%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	SFO 14:36	ORD 21:27	23%	6%	0.7%	37%
WN 3649 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 23:40	MDW 05:55	24%	4%	0.6%	41%
UA 2317 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	ORD 18:35	26%	5%	0.6%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544	5h 55m	92%	84%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	1h 20m Denver	DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601	6h 05m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	OAK 09:00 → LAS 10:30WN 2374	50m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	5h 50m	83%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON