Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1198 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1198 SFO 05:29 → DFW 11:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 436 SJC 14:23 → DFW 20:04 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1198 American Flight history →	SFO 05:29	DFW 11:15	5%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 2305 American Flight history →	SFO 06:45	DFW 12:29	6%	3%	0.9%	83%
AA 2111 American Flight history →	SFO 00:31	DFW 06:04	9%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 1866 United	SFO 00:07	DFW 05:38	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1062 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	DFW 14:25	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 1019 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	DFW 11:46	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 3281 American Flight history →	SFO 00:26	DFW 06:05	11%	3%	0.9%	51%
AA 2904 American Flight history →	SFO 08:00	DFW 13:40	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
UA 2478 United Flight history →	SFO 18:50	DFW 00:37	15%	6%	0.5%	60%
AA 2228 American Flight history →	SFO 23:20	DFW 04:59	16%	6%	0.9%	27%
WN 965 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:40	DAL 17:05	18%	3%	0.6%	50%
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:00	DAL 16:25	19%	3%	0.6%	73%
F9 4000 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 00:29	DFW 06:10	19%	6%	1.8%	61%
AA 1711 American Flight history →	SFO 17:01	DFW 22:47	20%	8%	0.9%	51%
UA 2842 United Flight history →	SFO 10:25	DFW 16:08	20%	6%	0.6%	61%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SFO 12:30	DFW 18:26	20%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 1849 American Flight history →	SFO 11:24	DFW 17:14	22%	6%	0.8%	45%
F9 2930 Frontier	SFO 00:08	DFW 05:36	22%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 2572 American Flight history →	SJC 11:47	DFW 17:30	24%	7%	0.7%	75%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	SFO 14:03	DFW 19:59	24%	8%	0.8%	50%
AA 2325 American Flight history →	SFO 15:38	DFW 21:25	26%	8%	0.8%	49%
WN 1859 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 15:10	DAL 20:50	27%	5%	0.5%	17%
AA 436 American Flight history →	SJC 14:23	DFW 20:04	29%	9%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON