tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1947 SFO 00:05 → MCO 08:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 520 SFO 14:00 → MCO 22:36 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time
Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1947 United Flight history → SFO 00:05 MCO 08:13 11% 3% 0.8% 93%
UA 2071 United Flight history → SFO 07:05 MCO 15:39 11% 4% 0.8% 90%
UA 520 United Flight history → SFO 14:00 MCO 22:36 17% 6% 0.7% 78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 05:59UA 505 1h 21m Houston IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51UA 2245 7h 46m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331 55m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032 7h 23m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 05:10 → DEN 08:40WN 1424 1h 20m Denver DEN 10:00 → MCO 15:55WN 1339 7h 45m 95% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON