tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:47 pm at Hartford); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Detroit, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:05 → DTW 19:15DL 2814 2h 20m Detroit DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126 6h 10m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44UA 2627 3h 00m Chicago ORD 21:44 → BNA 23:29UA 314 7h 34m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → BDL 17:22 → ORD 19:29AA 3409 · flown by Envoy 3h 20m Chicago ORD 22:49 → BNA 00:29 +1AA 2151 8h 07m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → BDL 17:21 → ATL 20:14DL 2739 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 6h 54m 97% 75%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 17:10 → BWI 18:35WN 4075 2h 45m Baltimore BWI 21:20 → BNA 22:21WN 2668 6h 11m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → BDL 16:25 → CLT 18:16AA 2741 3h 43m Charlotte CLT 21:59 → BNA 22:25AA 1644 7h 00m 100% 60%
AmericanDetails → BDL 17:28 → CLT 19:45AA 1443 3h 32m Charlotte CLT 23:17 → BNA 23:48AA 526 7h 20m 90% 56%
SouthwestDetails → BDL 17:10 → MCO 20:05WN 692 2h 45m Orlando MCO 22:50 → BNA 23:54WN 3146 7h 44m 86% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BDL 19:10 → MDW 20:40WN 428 51m Chicago MDW 21:31 → BNA 23:02WN 297 4h 52m 59% 47%
AmericanDetails → BDL 19:33 → DCA 21:10AA 5412 · flown by PSA 50m Washington DCA 22:00 → BNA 23:05AA 5513 · flown by PSA 4h 32m 48% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON