Today: WN 457 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–34%.

Safest bet today WN 457 BHM 05:45 → DEN 07:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 460 BHM 17:45 → DEN 19:40 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 457 Southwest	BHM 05:45	DEN 07:41	5%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 436 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 09:20	DEN 11:05	11%	3%	0.1%	86%
UA 5295 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BHM 08:10	DEN 10:35	14%	5%	0.3%	92%
UA 447 United Flight history →	BHM 15:40	DEN 17:54	24%	4%	0.6%	73%
UA 402 United	BHM 15:53	DEN 18:21	26%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 437 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 17:15	DEN 19:05	33%	4%	0.6%	50%
WN 460 Southwest	BHM 17:45	DEN 19:40	34%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON