Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:15 pm at Birmingham); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4990 at 17:08, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4990 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	BHM 17:08	DTW 20:10	19%	4%	0.4%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 16:00 → ATL 18:14DL 3163	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651	6h 44m	96%	67%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	6h 32m	97%	67%
American Details →	BHM 14:45 → CLT 17:29AA 5075 · flown by PSA	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	6h 49m	92%	65%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262	6h 01m	91%	61%
United Details →	BHM 15:08 → IAH 17:07UA 3991 · flown by Mesa	1h 35m Houston	IAH 18:42 → DTW 22:42UA 2755	6h 34m	84%	58%
American Details →	BHM 15:12 → DFW 17:23AA 5063 · flown by PSA	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:53 → DTW 23:28AA 313	7h 16m	85%	56%
American Details →	BHM 18:34 → CLT 21:04AA 5584 · flown by PSA	1h 47m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	5h 07m	82%	56%
American Details →	BHM 15:37 → ORD 18:00AA 3971 · flown by Envoy	53m Chicago	ORD 18:53 → DTW 21:30AA 4931 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	75%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BHM 17:47 → PHL 21:07AA 5064 · flown by PSA	57m Philadelphia	PHL 22:04 → DTW 23:59AA 5169 · flown by PSA	5h 12m	58%	42%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	54m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	4h 04m	61%	42%
American Details →	BHM 16:49 → DFW 19:00AA 5329 · flown by PSA	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:53 → DTW 23:28AA 313	5h 39m	45%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON