Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:09 am at Birmingham)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4379 Southwest	BHM 11:00	HOU 12:55	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4517 Southwest Flight history →	BHM 12:10	HOU 13:55	23%	4%	0.2%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BHM 05:00 → MDW 06:50WN 442	2h 50m Chicago	MDW 09:40 → HOU 12:26WN 2889	7h 26m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	BHM 05:30 → BNA 06:30WN 430	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → HOU 10:20WN 565	4h 50m	97%	83%
Southwest Details →	BHM 06:15 → DAL 08:00WN 239	1h 59m Dallas	DAL 09:59 → HOU 11:19WN 15	5h 04m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:30 → ATL 11:34DL 3100	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 52m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	BHM 09:20 → DEN 11:05WN 436	3h 25m Denver	DEN 14:30 → HOU 17:56WN 4525	8h 36m	100%	77%
American Details →	BHM 12:23 → DFW 14:35AA 3469 · flown by Envoy	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:06AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 43m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	BHM 12:15 → DAL 14:00WN 4328	3h 30m Dallas	DAL 17:30 → HOU 18:45WN 45	6h 30m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	BHM 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1979	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	4h 30m	94%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	4h 19m	73%	57%
American Details →	BHM 15:12 → DFW 17:23AA 5063 · flown by PSA	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:06AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	4h 54m	67%	51%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:27 → ATL 19:30DL 2484	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	4h 24m	74%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON