Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:14 am at Nashville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 2363 Southwest	BNA 14:00	BUR 16:36	21%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 461 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:40	BUR 17:55	27%	5%	0.6%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800	1h 30m Denver	DEN 08:30 → BUR 10:05WN 1557	6h 50m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50WN 3993	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 10:55 → BUR 12:10WN 1529	7h 10m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243	6h 20m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	BNA 06:35 → LAS 08:25WN 544	2h 11m Las Vegas	LAS 10:36 → BUR 11:52WN 4037	7h 17m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	3h 25m Chicago	MDW 15:45 → BUR 18:07WN 2907	9h 22m	100%	82%
United Details →	BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716	2h 20m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	7h 48m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	3h 05m Phoenix	PHX 12:45 → BUR 14:05WN 1493	8h 00m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	BNA 11:40 → DEN 13:25WN 500	2h 13m Denver	DEN 15:38 → BUR 17:13WN 1558	7h 33m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 14:54 → SFO 17:42UA 298	52m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → BUR 20:00UA 2001	7h 06m	70%	51%
Alaska Details →	BNA 09:25 → SEA 12:26AS 623	54m Seattle	SEA 13:20 → BUR 15:59AS 529	8h 34m	68%	50%
Southwest Details →	BNA 17:15 → DAL 19:10WN 5071	1h 25m Dallas	DAL 20:35 → BUR 21:57WN 4587	6h 42m	72%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON