Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:14 pm at Nashville); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4830 Southwest	BNA 20:25	CVG 22:40	26%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 4522 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:45	CVG 23:05	30%	4%	0.2%	68%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BNA 15:45 → ORD 17:33AA 2500	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 21:02 → CVG 23:27AA 3366 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:40 → DTW 20:24DL 2316	1h 39m Detroit	DTW 22:03 → CVG 23:22DL 5478 · flown by Endeavor	4h 42m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	6h 11m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46DL 1557	1h 52m Detroit	DTW 18:38 → CVG 19:57DL 5215 · flown by Endeavor	4h 54m	94%	80%
American Details →	BNA 17:41 → ORD 19:55AA 1570	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 22:28 → CVG 00:53 +1AA 4737 · flown by Republic	6h 12m	86%	77%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:31 → ATL 18:49DL 3142	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:48 → CVG 23:15DL 1858	5h 44m	96%	76%
Southwest Details →	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 19:30 → CVG 21:44WN 2484	4h 29m	88%	76%
United Details →	BNA 16:59 → ORD 19:00UA 1884	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148	5h 53m	87%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 17:41 → ORD 19:55AA 1570	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 21:02 → CVG 23:27AA 3366 · flown by Envoy	4h 46m	62%	53%
United Details →	BNA 18:24 → ORD 20:30UA 4679 · flown by SkyWest	50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148	4h 28m	43%	35%
Frontier Details →	BNA 17:05 → MCO 20:19F9 3560	1h 05m Orlando	MCO 21:24 → CVG 23:46F9 1713	5h 41m	55%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON