Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 800 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 800 BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1535 BNA 16:40 → DEN 18:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 800 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 05:15	DEN 07:00	5%	1%	0.1%	98%
WN 541 Southwest	BNA 05:48	DEN 07:40	6%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 1327 Southwest	BNA 08:05	DEN 09:57	10%	2%	0.1%	no record
UA 1716 United Flight history →	BNA 07:00	DEN 08:55	11%	4%	0.2%	89%
WN 499 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 07:55	DEN 09:40	11%	2%	0.1%	66%
WN 3292 Southwest	BNA 12:26	DEN 14:16	16%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 500 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:40	DEN 13:25	16%	3%	0.5%	65%
WN 506 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:50	DEN 23:45	18%	4%	0.5%	61%
UA 502 United Flight history →	BNA 10:26	DEN 12:23	18%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 503 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 13:25	DEN 15:10	21%	3%	0.5%	46%
WN 2210 Southwest	BNA 14:41	DEN 16:31	26%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 505 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:40	DEN 20:30	26%	5%	0.5%	32%
UA 1766 United Flight history →	BNA 14:29	DEN 16:29	26%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	BNA 17:30	DEN 19:36	30%	4%	0.6%	40%
UA 2201 United Flight history →	BNA 17:32	DEN 19:41	30%	4%	0.6%	66%
F9 1401 Frontier Flight history →	BNA 15:04	DEN 17:19	30%	6%	0.8%	77%
WN 1535 Southwest	BNA 16:40	DEN 18:30	31%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON