Today: DL 1557 at 14:03 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet today DL 1557 BNA 14:03 → DTW 16:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4815 BNA 17:55 → DTW 20:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	BNA 14:03	DTW 16:46	17%	3%	0.2%	88%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:40	DTW 20:24	24%	3%	0.1%	76%
WN 4546 Southwest	BNA 20:25	DTW 23:08	28%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4968 Southwest	BNA 14:31	DTW 16:38	31%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 4815 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 17:55	DTW 20:35	37%	4%	0.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON