Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: WN 830 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–31%.

Safest bet today WN 830 BNA 08:10 → ECP 09:42 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2176 BNA 12:55 → ECP 14:15 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 830 Southwest	BNA 08:10	ECP 09:42	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 510 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:15	ECP 09:35	14%	3%	1.0%	76%
WN 409 Southwest	BNA 11:45	ECP 13:16	27%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 554 Southwest	BNA 19:25	ECP 20:57	30%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 2176 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 12:55	ECP 14:15	31%	6%	0.9%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON