Today: WN 4622 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet today WN 4622 BNA 10:05 → GSP 12:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 526 BNA 16:05 → GSP 18:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4622 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:05	GSP 12:15	12%	2%	0.1%	88%
WN 4924 Southwest	BNA 10:20	GSP 12:37	13%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 562 Southwest	BNA 17:50	GSP 20:05	27%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4667 Southwest	BNA 20:35	GSP 22:52	27%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4563 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:40	GSP 22:55	28%	5%	0.5%	45%
WN 526 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 16:05	GSP 18:15	30%	5%	0.1%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON