Today: WN 532 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet today WN 532 BNA 08:00 → HOU 10:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 571 BNA 17:05 → HOU 19:19 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 532 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 08:00	HOU 10:05	11%	2%	0.4%	81%
WN 565 Southwest	BNA 08:21	HOU 10:05	12%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1661 Southwest	BNA 12:48	HOU 15:04	20%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 5055 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 11:40	HOU 13:40	25%	4%	0.3%	50%
WN 570 Southwest	BNA 22:13	HOU 00:27	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4474 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 22:45	HOU 00:50	32%	6%	0.6%	47%
WN 569 Southwest	BNA 19:23	HOU 21:37	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 534 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:25	HOU 21:30	35%	7%	0.6%	33%
WN 571 Southwest	BNA 17:05	HOU 19:19	38%	5%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON