Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 281 BNA 06:11 → IAH 08:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2339 BNA 15:08 → IAH 17:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 281 United	BNA 06:11	IAH 08:21	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 4746 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 08:53	IAH 11:24	15%	5%	0.5%	89%
UA 396 United Flight history →	BNA 06:30	IAH 08:42	16%	3%	0.6%	97%worse than usual
UA 241 United Flight history →	BNA 11:26	IAH 13:50	17%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 5332 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 08:40	IAH 11:02	17%	6%	0.5%	86%
UA 1366 United Flight history →	BNA 11:10	IAH 13:23	18%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 2490 United Flight history →	BNA 18:42	IAH 20:54	22%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 2339 United Flight history →	BNA 15:08	IAH 17:19	22%	5%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON