Today: AA 2809 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet today AA 2809 BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 419 BNA 15:30 → PHL 18:39 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2809 American Flight history →	BNA 06:28	PHL 09:39	15%	4%	0.7%	90%
OH 5358 PSA	BNA 09:15	PHL 12:33	19%	9%	2.2%	no record
AA 5576 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 08:57	PHL 12:06	21%	8%	2.2%	90%worse than usual
WN 623 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:15	PHL 13:20	25%	4%	0.5%	72%
WN 4879 Southwest	BNA 10:15	PHL 13:25	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 3221 American Flight history →	BNA 11:31	PHL 14:38	25%	6%	1.2%	73%
AA 5580 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BNA 20:01	PHL 23:10	27%	9%	1.0%	65%
WN 634 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 21:20	PHL 00:25	30%	6%	0.6%	28%
AA 3249 American	BNA 13:23	PHL 16:34	30%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 3130 American Flight history →	BNA 13:03	PHL 16:15	30%	6%	1.0%	78%
AA 1283 American	BNA 11:11	PHL 14:22	31%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 676 Southwest	BNA 20:45	PHL 23:54	33%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1506 American Flight history →	BNA 15:36	PHL 18:45	33%	7%	1.2%	68%
AA 2265 American	BNA 15:42	PHL 18:53	33%	8%	1.2%	no record
F9 1990 Frontier	BNA 21:52	PHL 01:13	33%	11%	1.3%	no record
WN 419 Southwest	BNA 15:30	PHL 18:39	34%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON