Today: WN 1795 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet today WN 1795 BNA 10:10 → RDU 12:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 4820 BNA 18:00 → RDU 20:35 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 1795 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 10:10	RDU 12:40	12%	1%	0.1%	74%
WN 4740 Southwest	BNA 10:20	RDU 12:58	13%	1%	0.1%	no record
YX 4337 Republic	BNA 12:21	RDU 15:11	15%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 4639 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 11:59	RDU 14:42	16%	3%	0.2%	89%
WN 653 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 14:20	RDU 16:55	21%	3%	0.2%	69%
YX 4368 Republic	BNA 17:05	RDU 19:55	22%	5%	0.2%	no record
WN 4431 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 20:35	RDU 23:15	22%	5%	0.5%	53%
WN 2445 Southwest	BNA 20:40	RDU 23:18	23%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 4596 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BNA 16:55	RDU 19:43	24%	6%	0.2%	67%
WN 696 Southwest	BNA 17:12	RDU 19:51	33%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4820 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 18:00	RDU 20:35	35%	5%	0.2%	67%
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 09:35	RDU 12:20	18%	9%	1.6%	82%
DL 5153 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BNA 19:59	RDU 22:46	28%	15%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON