Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 372 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 372 BNA 07:00 → SEA 09:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4784 BNA 15:55 → SEA 18:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 372 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:00	SEA 09:59	12%	4%	0.4%	86%
DL 373 Delta Flight history →	BNA 17:15	SEA 20:14	23%	4%	0.7%	52%
AS 623 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 09:25	SEA 12:26	24%	4%	0.6%	85%
AS 469 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 18:03	SEA 21:07	31%	6%	0.7%	54%
AS 281 Alaska Flight history →	BNA 07:02	SEA 10:04	32%	4%	0.6%	81%worse than usual
AS 1427 Alaska	BNA 18:37	SEA 21:24	33%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4784 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 15:55	SEA 18:50	33%	5%	0.5%	29%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	55m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	6h 59m	91%	78%
Southwest Details →	BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800	1h 30m Denver	DEN 08:30 → SEA 10:14WN 4392	6h 59m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON