tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 674 Southwest Flight history → BNA 15:05 SJC 17:40 24% 4% 0.6% 38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 1h 31m Denver DEN 08:31 → SJC 10:07WN 1775 6h 52m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 07:00 → LAS 08:50WN 3993 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439 6h 30m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221 1h 55m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 8h 01m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:05 → MDW 06:40WN 573 3h 11m Chicago MDW 09:51 → SJC 12:14WN 2990 9h 09m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 635 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 09:40 → SJC 11:35WN 3336 8h 15m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:00 → HOU 07:00WN 4430 1h 06m Houston HOU 08:06 → SJC 10:05WN 2125 7h 05m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → BNA 07:35 → SLC 10:15DL 1068 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 7h 00m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → BNA 07:00 → DEN 08:55UA 1716 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808 8h 24m 99% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BNA 05:15 → DEN 07:00WN 800 50m Denver DEN 07:50 → SJC 09:25WN 494 6h 10m 68% 63%
SouthwestDetails → BNA 17:20 → LAS 19:15WN 547 55m Las Vegas LAS 20:10 → SJC 21:40WN 2352 6h 20m 70% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON