Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:12 am at Nashville); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4523 at 20:40, 31%.

Nonstops today


WN 4523 Southwest	BNA 20:40	TYS 22:41	31%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 694 Southwest Flight history →	BNA 19:20	TYS 21:15	33%	6%	0.1%	32%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BNA 10:43 → ORD 12:39AA 3439 · flown by Envoy	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 15:13 → TYS 18:02AA 3783 · flown by Envoy	6h 19m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	5h 22m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	5h 06m	94%	73%
United Details →	BNA 12:49 → ORD 14:50UA 1616	3h 08m Chicago	ORD 17:58 → TYS 20:36UA 795	6h 47m	96%	71%
United Details →	BNA 13:35 → IAD 16:28UA 2125	2h 18m Dulles	IAD 18:46 → TYS 20:34UA 4914 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 59m	94%	69%
United Details →	BNA 11:10 → IAH 13:23UA 1366	1h 22m Houston	IAH 14:45 → TYS 18:07UA 6211 · flown by Mesa	5h 57m	81%	68%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 19:45 → TYS 23:01DL 5527 · flown by Endeavor	6h 01m	96%	68%
American Details →	BNA 16:30 → CLT 19:05AA 1526	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 22:40 → TYS 23:51AA 5511 · flown by PSA	6h 21m	94%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BNA 16:01 → ORD 18:09AA 6200 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:09 → TYS 21:58AA 5001 · flown by SkyWest	4h 57m	63%	46%
American Details →	BNA 14:52 → CLT 17:30AA 1486	47m Charlotte	CLT 18:17 → TYS 19:38AA 5957 · flown by Piedmont	3h 46m	64%	34%
American Details →	BNA 15:31 → DFW 17:44AA 1475	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → TYS 21:41AA 5346 · flown by PSA	5h 10m	46%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON