Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:04 pm at Boise); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: QX 2317 at 16:47, 43%.

Nonstops today


QX 2317 Horizon	BOI 16:47	GEG 17:11	43%	15%	0.7%	no record
AS 2137 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	BOI 20:46	GEG 21:10	44%	18%	0.8%	85%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466	6h 13m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	BOI 16:25 → DEN 18:20WN 700	2h 35m Denver	DEN 20:55 → GEG 22:20WN 1939	6h 55m	96%	60%
Southwest Details →	BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25WN 704	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → GEG 00:33 +1WN 4643	5h 53m	86%	56%
Southwest Details →	BOI 19:20 → SMF 19:45WN 717	2h 05m Sacramento	SMF 21:50 → GEG 23:40WN 2805	5h 20m	90%	56%
Delta Details →	BOI 15:29 → SEA 16:08DL 3958 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m Seattle	SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest	6h 44m	100%	51%
Delta Details →	BOI 19:28 → SEA 20:14DL 3688 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → GEG 23:55DL 2354	5h 27m	99%	48%
Southwest Details →	BOI 17:55 → PHX 19:05WN 711	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 20:55 → GEG 23:37WN 3011	6h 42m	87%	46%
American Details →	BOI 17:20 → PHX 18:40AA 4934 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 20:30 → GEG 23:06AA 1785	6h 46m	87%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOI 18:07 → SEA 18:42DL 4127 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest	4h 06m	58%	29%
Alaska Details →	BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229	47m Portland	PDX 17:32 → GEG 18:44AS 452	3h 21m	20%	9%
Alaska Details →	BOI 18:13 → SEA 18:53AS 296	57m Seattle	SEA 19:50 → GEG 20:56AS 1342	3h 43m	26%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON