Today: one nonstop, AS 3208 at 13:04, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 3208 BOI 13:04 → GEG 13:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3208 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BOI 13:04	GEG 13:28	14%	6%	0.1%	89%
AS 2137 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 21:23	GEG 21:33	15%	5%	1.8%	85%
AS 2030 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 18:53	GEG 19:01	16%	4%	1.9%	84%
AS 2259 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BOI 14:47	GEG 14:55	35%	10%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON