Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:47 pm at Boise); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: UA 743 at 18:44, 36%.

Nonstops today


UA 743 United	BOI 18:44	SFO 19:39	36%	14%	0.3%	no record
UA 649 United Flight history →	BOI 19:05	SFO 19:58	38%	14%	0.3%	24%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Boise). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOI 18:42 → SLC 19:57DL 2920	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	6h 10m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229	2h 48m Portland	PDX 19:33 → SFO 21:32AS 2112 · flown by Horizon	6h 09m	95%	63%
Southwest Details →	BOI 19:40 → LAS 20:25WN 704	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 22:55 → SFO 00:35 +1WN 2784	5h 55m	98%	62%
Alaska Details →	BOI 18:57 → LAX 20:23AS 2140 · flown by Horizon	2h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 22:27 → SFO 23:57AS 3067 · flown by SkyWest	6h 00m	91%	60%
Delta Details →	BOI 18:07 → SEA 18:42DL 4127 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Seattle	SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635	6h 52m	95%	60%
Delta Details →	BOI 16:00 → LAX 17:23DL 3701 · flown by SkyWest	2h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 20:08 → SFO 21:34DL 1693	6h 34m	94%	59%
Southwest Details →	BOI 17:55 → PHX 19:05WN 711	3h 30m Phoenix	PHX 22:35 → SFO 00:42 +1WN 4171	7h 47m	95%	55%
United Details →	BOI 17:46 → DEN 19:45UA 2395	1h 25m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123	6h 10m	79%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BOI 16:23 → PDX 16:45AS 229	51m Portland	PDX 17:36 → SFO 19:30AS 504	4h 07m	42%	24%
American Details →	BOI 15:54 → DFW 20:15AA 1531	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:03 → SFO 22:51AA 2522	7h 57m	49%	22%
Alaska Details →	BOI 18:13 → SEA 18:53AS 296	49m Seattle	SEA 19:42 → SFO 21:54AS 628	4h 41m	12%	5%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON