Today: YX 4782 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–34%.

Safest bet today YX 4782 BOS 08:15 → BUF 10:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1115 BOS 17:40 → BUF 19:19 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4782 Republic	BOS 08:15	BUF 10:05	9%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:21	BUF 11:11	9%	2%	0.3%	94%
AA 4440 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:55	BUF 15:44	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
B6 1215 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:44	BUF 10:27	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
B6 2115 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:13	BUF 09:46	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
YX 5864 Republic	BOS 11:05	BUF 12:55	15%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 4616 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:05	BUF 21:55	15%	8%	0.6%	72%
YX 4439 Republic	BOS 19:49	BUF 21:40	16%	8%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3401 Envoy	BOS 14:25	BUF 16:13	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
B6 915 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:02	BUF 13:48	20%	6%	0.6%	75%
B6 715 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:08	BUF 19:54	33%	16%	0.7%	66%
B6 1115 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:40	BUF 19:19	34%	14%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON