Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5703 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 5703 BOS 06:35 → BWI 08:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2656 BOS 17:33 → BWI 19:13 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5703 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:35	BWI 08:20	4%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 786 Southwest	BOS 05:35	BWI 07:15	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 727 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 05:45	BWI 07:20	6%	1%	0.4%	89%
WN 732 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 08:55	BWI 10:35	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 5668 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:10	BWI 12:53	6%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 2022 Southwest	BOS 09:12	BWI 10:51	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 790 Southwest	BOS 10:47	BWI 12:27	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 324 Southwest	BOS 13:05	BWI 14:45	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:50	BWI 17:42	11%	5%	0.7%	79%
WN 733 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 13:25	BWI 15:05	12%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 5851 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	BWI 22:29	12%	7%	0.7%	63%
WN 792 Southwest	BOS 14:35	BWI 16:15	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1053 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 15:55	BWI 17:40	19%	6%	0.6%	50%
WN 736 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 22:15	BWI 23:55	20%	7%	0.6%	55%
WN 1898 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 17:20	BWI 19:10	23%	8%	0.6%	52%
WN 735 Southwest Flight history →	BOS 19:50	BWI 21:35	25%	9%	0.6%	36%
WN 2656 Southwest	BOS 17:33	BWI 19:13	27%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON