Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:02 pm at Boston); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2785 at 12:06, 28%.

Nonstops today


DL 2785 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:06	CHS 14:40	28%	6%	0.7%	80%
B6 2467 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:52	CHS 16:23	56%	20%	0.6%	62%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BOS 12:55 → STL 14:45WN 4917	1h 45m St Louis	STL 16:30 → CHS 19:33WN 884	6h 38m	94%	76%
Southwest Details →	BOS 13:25 → BWI 15:05WN 733	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 16:20 → CHS 18:11WN 974	4h 46m	92%	72%
Delta Details →	BOS 16:30 → ATL 19:38DL 399	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	7h 56m	96%	69%
American Details →	BOS 15:15 → MIA 18:58AA 1565	3h 18m Miami	MIA 22:16 → CHS 23:59AA 2948	8h 44m	99%	69%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:05 → CHS 23:19DL 2525	8h 09m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:39 → CHS 18:54DL 3179	6h 24m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:35 → JFK 15:10DL 5808 · flown by Republic	3h 40m New York	JFK 18:50 → CHS 21:33DL 5293 · flown by Endeavor	7h 58m	100%	68%
American Details →	BOS 14:36 → DCA 16:43AA 4342 · flown by Republic	3h 36m Washington	DCA 20:19 → CHS 22:12AA 2203	7h 36m	100%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322	50m Atlanta	ATL 17:39 → CHS 18:54DL 3179	4h 59m	45%	31%
Delta Details →	BOS 19:10 → ATL 22:24DL 973	46m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	5h 16m	33%	24%
American Details →	BOS 19:37 → PHL 21:20AA 1147	52m Philadelphia	PHL 22:12 → CHS 00:08 +1AA 2134	4h 31m	38%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON