Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4357 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 4357 BOS 05:55 → JFK 07:16 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest B6 817 BOS 19:39 → JFK 21:00 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4357 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 05:55	JFK 07:16	3%	2%	1.2%	100%
AA 4401 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:01	JFK 07:30	4%	2%	1.2%	97%
DL 2611 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:05	JFK 07:30	4%	2%	0.8%	93%
DL 5720 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:05	JFK 10:24	9%	2%	0.7%	87%
B6 917 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:13	JFK 08:29	11%	3%	1.2%	94%
AA 4366 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:25	JFK 13:54	13%	6%	0.7%	80%
DL 5808 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:35	JFK 15:10	16%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 4687 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:40	JFK 14:12	16%	5%	0.7%	66%
B6 1017 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:41	JFK 09:59	18%	5%	0.9%	67%
DL 5702 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:20	JFK 22:47	20%	9%	0.8%	66%
B6 1117 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:19	JFK 12:35	25%	8%	0.8%	75%
AA 4390 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:46	JFK 19:29	27%	12%	0.8%	57%
DL 5814 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	JFK 18:42	31%	12%	0.8%	66%
B6 717 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:45	JFK 14:00	33%	13%	0.7%	62%
B6 317 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:09	JFK 18:30	44%	21%	0.9%	60%
B6 817 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:39	JFK 21:00	44%	19%	0.9%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON