Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 4630 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day YX 4630 BOS 05:59 → LGA 07:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1821 BOS 13:38 → LGA 14:55 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4630 Republic	BOS 05:59	LGA 07:22	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 2770 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:00	LGA 08:30	5%	2%	0.7%	98%
AA 4424 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LGA 07:24	5%	1%	0.7%	92%
DL 5836 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LGA 07:23	5%	1%	0.7%	95%
YX 5804 Republic	BOS 06:05	LGA 07:28	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 2524 Delta	BOS 07:03	LGA 08:18	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4396 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:04	LGA 08:30	6%	2%	0.8%	92%
YX 4658 Republic	BOS 07:06	LGA 08:29	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4377 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:06	LGA 09:32	8%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 5735 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:00	LGA 09:25	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
YX 4371 Republic	BOS 08:05	LGA 09:28	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5732 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:00	LGA 10:22	10%	2%	0.8%	88%
DL 5744 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:00	LGA 11:15	14%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 5755 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LGA 12:19	16%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 5854 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:00	LGA 13:21	18%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 4367 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:23	LGA 13:49	19%	5%	0.8%	74%
DL 5748 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:00	LGA 14:27	19%	5%	0.8%	82%
DL 5840 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 22:00	LGA 23:23	22%	6%	0.9%	69%
AA 4375 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:04	LGA 15:30	25%	5%	0.8%	68%
DL 5730 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:00	LGA 15:20	26%	5%	0.8%	77%
YX 4420 Republic	BOS 15:32	LGA 17:04	26%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 5736 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:00	LGA 16:30	27%	6%	0.8%	74%
DL 5609 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:00	LGA 22:21	27%	9%	0.9%	67%
AA 3058 American	BOS 09:47	LGA 11:03	28%	5%	2.7%	no record
DL 5726 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:00	LGA 17:30	28%	6%	0.9%	68%
DL 5831 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:00	LGA 19:34	30%	10%	0.9%	65%
DL 5849 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:00	LGA 21:29	30%	10%	0.8%	50%
DL 5716 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:59	LGA 20:29	31%	10%	0.9%	64%
AA 4397 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:00	LGA 21:26	31%	10%	0.9%	64%
DL 5721 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:00	LGA 18:29	33%	8%	0.9%	69%
AA 1489 American	BOS 12:12	LGA 13:29	34%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 4632 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:51	LGA 19:19	37%	10%	0.9%	49%
AA 1821 American	BOS 13:38	LGA 14:55	42%	6%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON