Today: AA 4698 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet today AA 4698 BOS 09:30 → ROC 11:21 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4709 BOS 16:19 → ROC 17:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 4698 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:30	ROC 11:21	15%	5%	0.4%	92%
AA 4171 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 09:55	ROC 11:30	15%	4%	0.7%	94%
AA 4662 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 21:29	ROC 23:06	18%	10%	0.8%	68%
AA 4709 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:19	ROC 17:57	35%	11%	0.7%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON