Today: AA 4635 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–38%.

Safest bet today AA 4635 BOS 08:36 → SYR 10:06 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 845 BOS 19:20 → SYR 20:49 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4635 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:36	SYR 10:06	9%	3%	0.2%	96%
MQ 3857 Envoy	BOS 11:28	SYR 12:55	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
B6 845 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:20	SYR 20:49	38%	11%	0.4%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON