Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:17 am at Buffalo)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1749 Delta	BUF 19:23	MSP 20:48	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 1751 Delta Flight history →	BUF 19:36	MSP 20:52	16%	6%	0.6%	60%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUF 07:35 → MDW 08:15WN 4154	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 09:55 → MSP 11:26WN 2066	4h 51m	100%	90%
American Details →	BUF 10:07 → ORD 11:09AA 4413 · flown by Republic	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 13:40 → MSP 15:29AA 4727 · flown by Republic	6h 22m	99%	89%
United Details →	BUF 10:57 → ORD 11:57UA 705	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	6h 16m	98%	86%
United Details →	BUF 07:20 → ORD 07:39UA 543	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 10:49 → MSP 12:26UA 215	6h 06m	99%	86%
United Details →	BUF 10:34 → IAD 11:50UA 3430 · flown by Republic	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic	5h 37m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	BUF 15:54 → DTW 17:10DL 3642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m Detroit	DTW 21:02 → MSP 21:54DL 8815	7h 00m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	BUF 08:45 → BWI 09:55WN 757	3h 45m Baltimore	BWI 13:40 → MSP 15:20WN 1016	7h 35m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	BUF 08:55 → DTW 10:10DL 3639 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697	5h 15m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747	54m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 37m	69%	56%
Southwest Details →	BUF 16:40 → DEN 18:15WN 3413	50m Denver	DEN 19:05 → MSP 22:10WN 2677	6h 30m	69%	51%
American Details →	BUF 17:25 → DCA 18:59AA 5106 · flown by PSA	1h 07m Washington	DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54AA 5506 · flown by PSA	5h 29m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON