Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:27 am at Burbank)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 483 Delta Flight history →	BUR 13:55	ATL 21:42	28%	4%	0.7%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	9h 20m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905	8h 23m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 40m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	9h 22m	99%	81%
United Details →	BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357	3h 39m San Francisco	SFO 21:20 → ATL 05:20 +1UA 1603	10h 07m	98%	81%
United Details →	BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488	2h 21m San Francisco	SFO 10:51 → ATL 18:36UA 702	8h 34m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	BUR 08:20 → LAS 09:30WN 786	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 10:40 → ATL 17:40WN 2493	6h 20m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	BUR 13:45 → BNA 19:45WN 3140	3h 05m Nashville	BNA 22:50 → ATL 01:05 +1WN 447	8h 20m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 21:20 → ATL 05:20 +1UA 1603	7h 38m	72%	58%
Southwest Details →	BUR 13:45 → BNA 19:45WN 3140	50m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → ATL 22:51WN 2533	6h 06m	69%	52%
Southwest Details →	BUR 14:45 → DEN 18:10WN 138	55m Denver	DEN 19:05 → ATL 00:10 +1WN 1472	6h 25m	69%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON