Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Albuquerque, leaving 10:20, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 3174 Southwest	BUR 08:15	AUS 13:19	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 771 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 11:00	AUS 16:00	35%	10%	0.5%	79%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778	2h 10m Denver	DEN 12:40 → AUS 15:50WN 1476	6h 40m	99%	79%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:55 → AUS 15:00AA 3726 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:19 → AUS 17:05DL 2689	8h 05m	99%	78%
Southwest Details →	BUR 08:35 → DEN 11:50WN 351	2h 40m Denver	DEN 14:30 → AUS 17:40WN 1478	7h 05m	100%	76%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	3h 14m San Francisco	SFO 18:27 → AUS 00:13 +1UA 2126	8h 28m	97%	75%
Southwest Details →	BUR 13:20 → DEN 16:45WN 4213	2h 11m Denver	DEN 18:56 → AUS 22:08WN 1129	6h 48m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	BUR 09:00 → OAK 10:15WN 802	1h 55m Oakland	OAK 12:10 → AUS 17:43WN 2115	6h 43m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	2h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728	6h 55m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	BUR 14:45 → DEN 18:10WN 138	46m Denver	DEN 18:56 → AUS 22:08WN 1129	5h 23m	65%	48%
United Details →	BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357	46m San Francisco	SFO 18:27 → AUS 00:13 +1UA 2126	6h 00m	55%	42%
American Details →	BUR 12:38 → DFW 17:54AA 1208	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:46 → AUS 19:56AA 616	5h 18m	58%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON