Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 776 BUR 15:55 → BOI 18:45 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time Riskiest OO 3404 BUR 17:23 → BOI 20:29 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 776 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 15:55	BOI 18:45	24%	4%	0.3%	54%
WN 1231 Southwest	BUR 18:05	BOI 21:07	26%	5%	0.4%	no record
OO 3404 SkyWest	BUR 17:23	BOI 20:29	28%	6%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON