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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 2h 05m Chicago MDW 15:25 → FLL 19:25WN 4899 9h 00m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 10h 46m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 1h 22m Denver DEN 13:57 → FLL 20:01UA 1384 7h 53m 95% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:00 → AUS 16:00WN 771 3h 25m Austin AUS 19:25 → FLL 23:15WN 300 9h 15m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 29m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:49UA 1374 8h 01m 91% 72%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:35 → DEN 11:50WN 351 3h 05m Denver DEN 14:55 → FLL 20:50WN 4222 9h 15m 100% 68%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921 2h 30m Dallas DAL 19:20 → FLL 23:10WN 46 8h 25m 97% 67%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 7h 44m 79% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 8h 17m 72% 61%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:37 → DFW 17:54AA 1208 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:55 → FLL 22:52AA 2946 7h 15m 67% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON