Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:35, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day


B6 359 JetBlue Flight history →	BUR 21:25	JFK 05:59	35%	10%	1.3%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BUR 16:42 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest	3h 27m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 05m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	BUR 12:35 → SLC 15:33DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	8h 12m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 20m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 14m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	BUR 09:45 → SLC 12:43DL 3681 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	8h 40m	97%	75%
American Details →	BUR 09:16 → PHX 10:52AA 3992 · flown by Envoy	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 13:17 → JFK 21:05AA 566	8h 49m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	BUR 18:39 → SEA 21:20AS 703	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	9h 59m	90%	72%
American Details →	BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:13 → JFK 21:00AA 578	10h 59m	98%	68%
Alaska Details →	BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52AS 720	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 13:57 → JFK 21:55AS 34	8h 45m	82%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON