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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 09:08, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 3h 25m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 9h 46m 99% 56%
AmericanDetails → BUR 07:01 → DFW 12:19AA 2599 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:54 → LGA 18:28AA 1535 8h 27m 94% 53%
UnitedDetails → BUR 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 2187 1h 19m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 7h 42m 87% 52%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:25 → MDW 13:20WN 3156 1h 20m Chicago MDW 14:40 → LGA 17:47WN 3337 7h 22m 100% 49%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778 50m Denver DEN 11:20 → LGA 16:58WN 1656 6h 48m 91% 48%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921 1h 10m Dallas DAL 18:00 → LGA 22:25WN 4852 7h 40m 89% 47%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 08:35 → DEN 11:50WN 351 3h 15m Denver DEN 15:05 → LGA 20:50WN 4233 9h 15m 100% 47%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:38 → DFW 17:56AA 1208 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 8h 07m 75% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:38 → DFW 17:56AA 1208 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:00 → LGA 23:25AA 1375 7h 47m 69% 40%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 7h 48m 58% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON