tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:54, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 46m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BUR 18:38 → PHX 20:19AA 4944 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 8h 50m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 44m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 9h 57m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30UA 488 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 12:22 → MIA 21:05UA 1458 11h 03m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → BUR 16:42 → PHX 18:23AA 6415 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Phoenix PHX 22:00 → MIA 05:22 +1AA 2205 9h 40m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → BUR 09:08 → DEN 12:35UA 1191 3h 32m Denver DEN 16:07 → MIA 22:11UA 445 10h 03m 99% 70%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 07:10 → DEN 10:30WN 778 1h 40m Denver DEN 12:10 → MIA 18:10WN 1624 8h 00m 99% 66%
DeltaDetails → BUR 13:55 → ATL 21:42DL 483 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 8h 00m 82% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 1h 04m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 8h 17m 69% 58%
AmericanDetails → BUR 12:57 → DFW 18:22AA 1617 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:12 → MIA 22:59AA 1824 7h 02m 57% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON