Today: WN 814 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–35%.

Safest bet today WN 814 BUR 08:35 → PHX 10:10 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 980 BUR 18:48 → PHX 20:26 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 814 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:35	PHX 10:10	16%	4%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
WN 856 Southwest	BUR 10:43	PHX 12:22	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3992 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUR 09:16	PHX 10:52	17%	5%	0.5%	88%
WN 901 Southwest	BUR 20:40	PHX 22:19	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 816 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 11:55	PHX 13:30	20%	4%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 839 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 20:30	PHX 22:00	20%	6%	0.7%	74%
WN 898 Southwest	BUR 14:12	PHX 15:51	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 819 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 15:55	PHX 17:25	25%	4%	0.6%	79%
WN 900 Southwest	BUR 19:05	PHX 20:44	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 820 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 18:55	PHX 20:25	31%	6%	0.6%	79%
WN 899 Southwest	BUR 17:55	PHX 19:34	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 4944 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 18:38	PHX 20:19	33%	9%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
AA 6415 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BUR 16:42	PHX 18:23	35%	8%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
OO 6446 SkyWest	BUR 16:47	PHX 18:29	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 980 American Flight history →	BUR 18:48	PHX 20:26	35%	11%	0.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON