tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:50 am at Burbank); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1233 Southwest BUR 16:15 RNO 17:41 20% 6% 0.3% no record
WN 843 Southwest Flight history → BUR 20:55 RNO 22:20 22% 7% 0.4% 73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUR 16:54 → SLC 19:50DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 53m 99% 85%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 14:09 → PDX 16:26AS 1383 1h 32m Portland PDX 17:58 → RNO 19:32AS 485 5h 23m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 17:20 → LAS 18:30WN 792 3h 26m Las Vegas LAS 21:56 → RNO 23:23WN 2391 6h 03m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:10 → LAS 19:20WN 4370 2h 55m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → RNO 23:40WN 287 5h 30m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 18:55 → PHX 20:25WN 820 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 22:45 → RNO 00:35 +1WN 656 5h 40m 97% 75%
SouthwestDetails → BUR 19:00 → LAS 20:10WN 794 2h 36m Las Vegas LAS 22:46 → RNO 00:14 +1WN 4581 5h 14m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 2h 35m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 5h 16m 91% 66%
UnitedDetails → BUR 16:13 → SFO 17:41UA 357 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 21:10 → RNO 22:29UA 5983 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50UA 2854 55m San Francisco SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58UA 1757 3h 36m 63% 45%
UnitedDetails → BUR 18:42 → SFO 20:10UA 1508 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 21:10 → RNO 22:29UA 5983 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m 67% 45%
AlaskaDetails → BUR 13:21 → SEA 16:03AS 580 1h 04m Seattle SEA 17:07 → RNO 18:54AS 598 5h 33m 70% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON