Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 488 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 488 BUR 07:02 → SFO 08:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 2854 BUR 20:22 → SFO 21:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 488 United Flight history →	BUR 07:02	SFO 08:30	14%	5%	1.0%	80%
WN 1146 Southwest	BUR 08:20	SFO 09:44	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 520 United	BUR 09:34	SFO 11:17	21%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 827 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 08:55	SFO 10:15	23%	6%	1.2%	19%
WN 833 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 16:30	SFO 17:55	25%	9%	0.9%	46%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	BUR 10:53	SFO 12:21	25%	9%	1.0%	52%
WN 2165 Southwest Flight history →	BUR 13:15	SFO 14:35	25%	7%	1.2%	53%
UA 357 United Flight history →	BUR 16:13	SFO 17:41	25%	9%	0.9%	46%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	BUR 13:45	SFO 15:13	28%	9%	1.2%	66%
UA 1508 United Flight history →	BUR 18:42	SFO 20:10	28%	9%	0.9%	41%
UA 2854 United Flight history →	BUR 20:22	SFO 21:50	31%	10%	0.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON