Today: WN 948 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–45%.

Safest bet today WN 948 BWI 08:11 → AUS 10:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 441 BWI 15:58 → AUS 18:46 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 948 Southwest	BWI 08:11	AUS 10:57	22%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 865 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:05	AUS 10:30	24%	3%	0.2%	84%
WN 498 Southwest	BWI 09:46	AUS 12:33	26%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 866 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 09:40	AUS 12:05	28%	3%	0.3%	74%
WN 949 Southwest	BWI 19:55	AUS 22:43	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 867 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	AUS 16:15	42%	7%	0.2%	57%
WN 441 Southwest	BWI 15:58	AUS 18:46	45%	7%	0.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 09:45 → BNA 10:35WN 487	55m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → AUS 13:40WN 450	4h 55m	84%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON