tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:50 am at Baltimore)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3150 Southwest BWI 17:00 BHM 18:13 17% 4% 0.2% no record
WN 3656 Southwest Flight history → BWI 15:35 BHM 16:40 21% 4% 0.2% 81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BWI 18:32 → ORD 19:42AA 3762 · flown by Envoy 1h 48m Chicago ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:29AA 3757 · flown by Envoy 5h 57m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 12:33 → DTW 14:07DL 1546 1h 44m Detroit DTW 15:51 → BHM 16:55DL 4647 · flown by Endeavor 5h 22m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → BWI 18:39 → MIA 21:25AA 1619 1h 31m Miami MIA 22:56 → BHM 23:59AA 3427 · flown by Envoy 6h 20m 85% 74%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 21:44 → BHM 21:40DL 2257 5h 40m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202 6h 50m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BHM 16:22DL 2484 5h 30m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 18:00 → BNA 19:00WN 879 3h 20m Nashville BNA 22:20 → BHM 23:25WN 4923 6h 25m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 2h 35m Chicago ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:34UA 4447 · flown by GoJet 7h 02m 94% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 52m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202 3h 58m 73% 55%
AmericanDetails → BWI 12:00 → DFW 14:27AA 2747 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:39 → BHM 18:35AA 3417 · flown by Envoy 7h 35m 74% 55%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 18:40 → MCO 21:10WN 3777 1h 00m Orlando MCO 22:10 → BHM 22:50WN 4829 5h 10m 67% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON